The Bank of Canada’s rate decisions directly affect your mortgage costs, your cash flow, and the value of every income property you own or plan to buy.
This page tracks every BoC rate announcement, what the major banks are forecasting for the rest of 2026, and what it all means if you’re investing in Toronto multiplexes. We update it after every decision.
Current overnight rate: 2.25% | Prime rate: 4.45% | Last updated: May 5, 2026
April 29, 2026 Bank of Canada Update
On April 29, 2026, the Bank of Canada held its overnight rate at 2.25% for the fourth consecutive meeting.
Prime rate stays at 4.45%. No change for variable mortgage holders or HELOCs.
Governor Macklem’s message was deliberately two-sided. If U.S. trade restrictions hit the Canadian economy harder than expected, cuts are back on the table. If oil prices stay elevated and inflation picks up, the Bank could move in the opposite direction with consecutive hikes. In plain terms: the Bank is watching and waiting, and the next move could go either way.
For now, most economists expect the Bank to hold through the rest of 2026. TD Economics is forecasting no further moves this year.
What this means for your mortgage:
Fixed rates are already moving without the Bank doing anything. The five-year insured fixed has risen roughly 25 to 40 basis points since mid-March and now sits around 4.04%. That move happened because bond markets are pricing in inflation risk from oil and trade uncertainty — not because the Bank cut or hiked.
Variable rate mortgages still offer better value today at approximately 3.60%, but they carry real upside risk if oil stays elevated and forces the Bank’s hand later in the year.
Bottom line: if you are closing a deal soon and want certainty, locking in now at 4.04% fixed is reasonable. If you have flexibility and believe the trade situation will weigh on growth more than oil will drive inflation, variable still makes sense.
📌 Next decision: June 10, 2026.
Bank of Canada Meeting Schedule
Wondering when the Bank of Canada will make its next move? The BoC announces rate decisions eight times a year. These dates are key for anyone watching interest rates or planning a real estate move.
| Announcement Date | Target Rate | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | ||
| January 24, 2024 | 5.00% | --- |
| March 6, 2024 | 5.00% | --- |
| April 10, 2024 | 5.00% | --- |
| June 5, 2024 | 4.75% | -0.25% |
| July 24, 2024 | 4.50% | -0.25% |
| September 4, 2024 | 4.25% | -0.25% |
| October 23, 2024 | 3.75% | -0.50% |
| December 11, 2024 | 3.25% | -0.50% |
| 2025 | ||
| January 29, 2025 | 3.00% | -0.25% |
| March 12, 2025 | 2.75% | -0.25% |
| April 16, 2025 | 2.75% | --- |
| June 4, 2025 | 2.75% | --- |
| July 30, 2025 | 2.75% | --- |
| September 17, 2025 | 2.50% | -0.25% |
| October 29, 2025 | 2.25% | -0.25% |
| December 10, 2025 | 2.25% | --- |
| 2026 | ||
| January 28, 2026 | 2.25% | --- |
| March 18, 2026 | 2.25% | --- |
| April 29, 2026 | 2.25% | --- |
| June 10, 2026 | TBC | TBC |
| July 15, 2026 | TBC | TBC |
| September 2, 2026 | TBC | TBC |
| October 28, 2026 | TBC | TBC |
| December 9, 2026 | TBC | TBC |
Historical Bank of Canada Interest Rates (2015–2025)
Rates don’t move in a straight line. Here’s how Canada’s overnight target rate has shifted over the past decade:
| Year | Start Rate | End Rate |
|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 1.00% | 0.50% |
| 2016 | 0.50% | 0.50% |
| 2017 | 0.50% | 1.00% |
| 2018 | 1.00% | 1.75% |
| 2019 | 1.75% | 1.75% |
| 2020 | 1.75% | 0.25% |
| 2021 | 0.25% | 0.25% |
| 2022 | 0.25% | 4.25% |
| 2023 | 4.25% | 5.00% |
| 2024 | 5.00% | 3.00% |
| 2025 | 3.00% | 2.25% |
What the BoC is Actually Seeing Right Now
Inflation: Headline CPI came in at 2.3% in March 2026, above the Bank’s 2% target. Elevated oil prices are feeding into broader inflation, and if they stay high, the Bank has signalled it could respond with consecutive hikes later in the year.
Growth: The Canadian economy is slowing. Consumer spending is cautious, business investment is pulling back, and U.S. tariffs are creating real uncertainty for exporters and businesses planning ahead.
Policy stance: The Bank is holding steady and watching three things: oil prices, inflation data, and how tariffs play out. If oil stays elevated and inflation keeps climbing, hikes are back on the table. If tariffs hit growth harder than expected, cuts become more likely. The next move depends on which of those forces wins out first.
This is not a stable economy. It is one caught between an inflation risk and a growth risk at the same time.
Where Are Interest Rates Going in Canada?
Do not expect a rate boom.
Do not expect aggressive cuts either.
The most likely path is flat rates with occasional adjustments, driven by inflation data, not housing prices.
If inflation continues to undershoot and growth weakens further, cuts become more likely.
If inflation re-accelerates, the Bank will pause or delay.
This is a narrow policy range environment.
| Bank | Now | Mar 2026 | Jun 2026 | Sep 2026 | Dec 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 |
2.25% | 2.25% | 2.25% | 2.25% | 2.25% |
 |
2.25% | 2.25% | 2.25% | 2.25% | 2.25% |
 |
2.25% | 2.25% | 2.25% | 2.25% | 2.25% |
 |
2.25% | 2.25% | 2.25% | 2.25% | 2.25% |
 |
2.25% | 2.25% | 2.25% | 2.75% | 3.00% |
Last Updated: May 5, 2026.
Most banks are aligned in expecting the Bank of Canada to hold at 2.25% through 2026. With growth slowing and trade uncertainty weighing on the outlook, the consensus view is that there is no strong case to move in either direction right now.
Scotia remains the outlier, forecasting hikes to 3% by year-end, based on concerns that oil-driven inflation could prove more persistent and force the Bank’s hand later in the cycle. Given what Macklem said at the April 29 meeting, Scotia’s view is worth watching.
How Different Toronto Properties Are Performing Right Now
Supply and demand vary sharply by property type. Condos continue to face oversupply from new completions and investor selling, which is weighing on prices and rents. Houses and multiplexes remain supply-constrained, with few motivated sellers and limited forced sales.
With policy changes supporting multi-unit housing, strong cash flows, and construction costs keeping a floor for houses, multiplexes continue to stand out as the most resilient investment segment in Toronto.
From a risk perspective, much of the downside has already occurred. Pricing has adjusted, expectations have reset, and returns are now driven more by actual income rather than future price appreciation. In this environment, performance depends less on market momentum and more on disciplined underwriting and execution.
Value-Add Opportunities: Better Returns, Lower Risk
Value-add opportunities are more attractive today for two key reasons.
First, prices are more stable after adjusting downward from their peaks. Large price swings increase the chance that gains from a value-add project can be wiped out, so lower volatility reduces this risk.
Second, the gap between project properties and finished values has widened compared to the peak, creating stronger and more reliable upside for investors.
With construction costs more predictable, returns now depend more on execution and income growth than on market timing. For houses and multiplexes, this leads to better value-add returns with lower and more predictable risk.
Toronto Rents, Cap Rates, Cash Flow: Why Income Improved
2025 was not a strong market by traditional measures. Sales volumes were down and sentiment remained cautious. But that softer environment created real opportunity for income-focused investors.
During the year, both prices and rents adjusted lower — but purchase prices declined more than rents. When that happens, rent yields improve and cap rates expand, even in a weaker market. At the same time, mortgage rates eased significantly from their peak, reducing borrowing costs.
The combination of lower entry prices, higher cap rates, and declining interest rates led to stronger cash flow on well-bought income properties. In many cases, monthly cash flow reached levels not seen in several years.
Now in 2026, that window is still open — but it is narrowing. Prices have stabilized, rates have stopped falling, and competition for quality multiplexes is picking back up. Investors who move this year are still buying into a better entry point than 2023 or 2024. That advantage will not last indefinitely.
Mortgage Rate Estimates (May 2026)
If you’re planning to buy or refinance, here’s a quick cheat sheet:
| Product | Estimate |
|---|---|
| 3-Year Fixed Rate | 3-Year Bond yield + 1.5% |
| Prime Rate | Bank of Canada rate + 2.2% = 4.45% |
| Variable Mortgage Rate | Prime – 0.85% |
| HELOC Rate | Prime + 0% to 2% |
Cuts for fixed rates are already priced in, so the impact of new moves won’t be dramatic. Fixed rates usually drop first in a falling rate environment because they’re tied to bond yields, which anticipate cuts. Variable rates adjust only after the Bank of Canada makes its decision.
Example — January 2026:
- 3-year bond yield: 2.6% → Fixed mortgage rates: ~4.1%
- Prime rate: 4.45% → Variable mortgage rates: ~3.60%
Free Mortgage Calculator
Want to see how a rate change affects your monthly payment? Helpful if you’re house hunting, refinancing, or planning a top-up.
Expert Tip: Fixed vs. Variable in 2026
For the first time in years, variable rates are now dipping below fixed — and that’s actually the normal state of things. The unusual stretch we just went through, where fixed was cheaper, was never how the market typically works.
Think of fixed rates as insurance: you pay a premium for stability and peace of mind. Variable rates come with more risk, but they usually cost less — and with cuts underway, they now offer the bigger savings potential.
Bottom line: if you want certainty, go fixed. If you want lower costs and can handle some bumps along the way, go variable.
What Should Real Estate Investors Focus On Right Now?
This isn’t the time to bet on price appreciation. Instead, smart investors are focused on:
- ✅ Strong cash flow from day one
- ✅ Legal multi-units in stable, working-class areas
- ✅ Properties with laneway/garden suite potential
- ✅ Smart use of leverage while rates are easing
- ✅ Flexibility to refinance or exit
Ready to see how current rates affect your deal?
Canada’s 2026 Interest Rate Outlook and What It Means for Real Estate Investors
Interest rates have likely moved past their peak and are now settling into a more stable range heading into 2026. While further cuts are possible, the Bank of Canada has made it clear that any easing will be gradual and data-driven.
For investors, this environment rewards disciplined underwriting. Softer pricing, higher cap rates, and lower borrowing costs have improved cash flow on income properties, making fundamentals more important than short-term price movements.
Want to see what’s possible for you? Book a strategy session with us here.
What Toronto Real Estate Investment Is Right For You?
Check out our complete Toronto real estate investment guide for all the details and real-life examples. If you’re ready to dive in, just book a call with us!
