Demand for Toronto real estate is rising for January 2024, making the Toronto market hotter than the end of last year. However, buyers are very cautious, so average Toronto real estate prices are at similar levels compared to January 2023.
Here’s some good news if you’re thinking of buying: Canadian interest rate cuts are expected to be delayed, giving us more time to find deals in the current Toronto market.
Let’s dive in!
Toronto Real Estate Price Trends From TRREB MLS®
Toronto real estate prices haven’t shifted much relative to last year.
Following a rebound in spring 2023 due to a backlog of demand, the Toronto real estate market felt the impact of higher interest rates. This led to a more favourable real estate buying environment, with Toronto prices gradually easing for the rest of the year.
As of January 2024, we’re back to Toronto real estate price levels similar to the lows seen in January 2023 – down just 1% from last year’s prices.
| Jan 2023 | Jan 2024 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 416 Detached | $1,486,124 | $1,570,520 | +6% |
| 416 Semi | $1,150,506 | $1,199,531 | +4% |
| 416 Condo | $711,171 | $709,419 | -0% |
| 905 Detached | $1,298,809 | $1,297,275 | -0% |
Toronto Real Estate Sales & Listings From TRREB MLS®
TRREB’s January 2024 report echoes what we’ve observed in the Toronto real estate market. Real estate demand in Toronto surged by 37% compared to last year, but available homes for sale are only up 8% compared to last year.
| Jan 2023 | Jan 2024 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average Price | $1,037,032 | $1,026,703 | -1% |
| Sales | 3,084 | 4,223 | +37% |
| New Listings | 7,717 | 8,312 | +8% |
| SNLR | 40% | 51% | +79% |
Understanding Toronto Real Estate Market Dynamics Through the SNLR
The sales-to-new-listings ratio (SNLR) helps gauge market balance.
Although we’ve been below the average SNLR over the past year, January saw a notable uptick in sales alongside a modest increase in listings. As a result, the SNLR has risen from last year, indicating a hotter Toronto real estate market compared to last year.
- Seller’s Market (SNLR above blue line): Demand exceeds supply, leading to competition among buyers and price increases.
- Buyer’s Market (SNLR below blue line): Oversupply gives buyers negotiating power and may result in lower prices.
- Balanced Market (SNLR at blue line): Supply and demand are in equilibrium, leading to stable prices at around 60% in the Toronto real estate market.
Key Insights Into Today's Toronto Real Estate Market
January saw a boost in Toronto real estate buying momentum, partly due to lower 3 year fixed mortgage rates, which dropped from 6.5% to close to 5% within just a handful of weeks.
Despite this, strong jobs and economic growth data released in January 2024 suggest a delay in Bank of Canada interest rate cuts from spring to summer. This may dampen buying momentum a bit, extending the window for deals in our current buyer’s market in Toronto.
As we head into the latter half of the year, brace for more competition among buyers.
Potential interest rate cuts anticipated in late 2024 may fuel even greater demand in the Toronto real estate market, potentially leading to further upward pressure on prices in the coming two years.
How We Can Help
If you need help finding the best Toronto real estate investing opportunities, our expert investing team can help.
We’re not your typical real estate sales brokerage. Instead, we focus on using numbers to make better real estate investing decisions in Toronto. That can mean looking for stronger investments with positive cash flow, thinking about risk management, and looking for ways to boost returns like value-add renovations and gentrifying areas.
If you want to discuss your private real estate situation with us, just go to this link below to set up a time to chat.
