2024 was a year of change for the GTA housing market. Sellers started to act again after holding off since 2022, bringing in a lot of new listings. More listings meant more options for buyers, and this kept prices steady.
| Dec 2023 | Nov 2024 | Dec 2024 | YoY | MoM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Price | $1,084,692 | $1,106,050 | $1,067,186 | -2% | -4% |
| Sales | 3,444 | 5,875 | 3,359 | -2% | -43% |
| New Listings | 3,886 | 11,592 | 4,681 | +20% | -60% |
| SNLR | 89% | 51% | 72% | -19% | +42% |
Interest rates stayed high for most of the year, making homes less affordable for many buyers.
By the end of 2024, rates started to drop, and that’s when things started to look up. We’re now seeing a trend of rising sales-to-new-listings, which tells us the market is heating up.
Toronto Single-Family Homes vs. Toronto Condos
In 2024, single-family homes in Toronto, particularly detached and semi-detached houses, outperformed condos. The starter semi-detached home market has seen a noticeable uptick, which isn’t surprising—it’s historically the easiest type of freehold family home to get into in many neighbourhoods.
There’s also strong freehold demand from both buyers and investors. These homes are more attractive because they offer better cash flow and the potential for increased value through renovations or development.
Toronto condos struggled in 2024. Most investors faced deep negative cash flow, and with little room for price growth, many pulled out. There’s also a lack of demand from end-users since condos are often too small and not in neighbourhoods that attract families.
With more condos coming to market in 2025 and 2026 from previous pre-construction projects, supply will likely outpace demand for a while.
Understanding Toronto Real Estate Market Dynamics Through the SNLR
| Dec 2023 | Nov 2024 | Dec 2024 | YoY | MoM | SNLR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 416 Detached | $1,626,980 | $1,695,939 | $1,624,500 | -0% | -4% | 79% |
| 416 Semi | $1,173,171 | $1,248,930 | $1,302,024 | +11% | +4% | 155% |
| 416 Condo | $709,283 | $713,364 | $719,774 | +1% | +1% | 54% |
| 905 Detached | $1,351,009 | $1,369,132 | $1,336,718 | -1% | -2% | 78% |
It’s clear that the SNLR for houses and condos is moving in different directions, showing us the shift in market dynamics. Houses are much hotter right now, with the SNLR for detached homes and semis are getting back to more typical average levels, and if you’re looking to buy, be prepared for a more competitive market.
Condos, on the other hand, are a completely different story. The SNLR for condos is still quite low, which shows weaker demand compared to houses. Prices are still soft, and the condo market is far from the heated conditions we’re seeing in the house market.
- Seller’s Market (SNLR above dotted line): Demand exceeds supply, leading to competition among buyers and price increases.
- Buyer’s Market (SNLR below dotted line): Oversupply gives buyers negotiating power and may result in lower prices.
- Balanced Market (SNLR at dotted line): Supply and demand are in equilibrium, leading to stable prices at around 60% in the Toronto real estate market.
What’s Ahead for 2025?
Interest Rates
Good news: interest rates are expected to keep falling and this is going to give further relief to the housing market. Right now, major Canadian banks predict another 25-100 bps cut by June 2025.
So for buyers who are renewing mortgages from 2020, this is a big win! Many were expecting to renew with fixed rates close to 5.5–6%, but now it could be closer to 3.5–4%. This will bring stability to the market and keep homeowners from being forced to sell.
Immigration and Infrastructure
Immigration is slowing down, which should help ease pressure on infrastructure and living costs. While rents may keep falling, dropping interest rates should help maintain more stable cash flows for investors.
The main cause of uncertainty in real estate was the unknowns around high interest rates—how long they would last and how high they would go. With that uncertainty starting to clear, home prices should stabilize, and there’s a better chance for growth as rates continue to drop.
Government Changes
A potentially incoming Conservative government could create a more real estate-friendly environment, with a stronger focus on value-add projects rather than simply speculating on the market. This shift will likely draw more attention to single-family homes, particularly in cities like Toronto, which continue to face a real housing crisis.
The new conservative government has pledged to speed up housing approvals and reduce development charges, making it more cost-effective to build.
Add this to lower borrowing costs, gradually rising property values, and new government programs for 2025 to help finance multiplex construction, we’re looking at some solid opportunities for value-add projects.
How We Can Help
2025 looks like it could be a better year for real estate, but don’t dive in without a solid plan. The market’s still uncertain, so make sure you understand the numbers and stay grounded.
Whether you’re buying, selling, or investing, having a clear strategy is key to making the most of the year ahead.
Need help with your 2025 Toronto real estate strategy? Let’s talk! Click the link below to schedule a call with us.
