Listings Are Up Everywhere, But Sales Strength Varies
The Toronto real estate market kicked off 2025 with a surge in listings across the board, but how buyers are responding depends on the type of home.
When conditions start improving, sellers typically jump in first, pushing out pent-up supply. This surge in listings is keeping conditions softer, even as buyers cautiously return.
| Jan 2024 | Jan 2025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average Price | $1,026,703 | $1,040,994 | +1% |
| Sales | 4,223 | 3,847 | -9% |
| New Listings | 8,312 | 12,392 | +49% |
| SNLR | 51% | 31% | -39% |
Inventory jumped significantly, but sales activity hasn’t kept pace across all segments:
- Semi-Detached Homes: The strongest segment, holding up better than others, but still weaker than historical norms.
- Detached Homes: Somewhere in the middle—not as strong as semis, but faring better than condos.
- Condos: Struggling the most, with sales lagging and listings climbing, pushing the market further into oversupply.
SNLR Shows a Market in Transition
| Jan 2024 | Jan 2025 | SNLR | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 416 Detached | $1,570,520 | $1,579,386 | 33% |
| 416 Semi | $1,199,531 | $1,154,505 | 54% |
| 416 Condo | $709,419 | $691,039 | 25% |
| 905 Detached | $1,297,275 | $1,319,751 | 31% |
The Sales-to-New-Listings Ratio (SNLR), which measures supply vs. demand, shows a clear divide:
- Condos: Near record-low SNLR, making it the weakest segment with excess supply and weaker demand.
- Detached Homes: More balanced, but still not at normal levels.
- Semi-Detached Homes: The strongest segment, but still softer than historical averages.
If this follows last year’s trend, we could see momentum build over the next few months. In 2024, prices climbed over 15% from January to the peak in May before settling slightly higher—about 5% above January levels—for the rest of the year. If history repeats itself, we may see a similar price build-up through the spring
- Seller’s Market (SNLR above dotted line): Demand exceeds supply, leading to competition among buyers and price increases.
- Buyer’s Market (SNLR below dotted line): Oversupply gives buyers negotiating power and may result in lower prices.
- Balanced Market (SNLR at dotted line): Supply and demand are in equilibrium, leading to stable prices at around 60% in the Toronto real estate market.
What’s Next?
Despite high inventory, prices have stayed steady, as returning buyers are expecting mortgage rates to drop. If the market follows last year’s trend, we could see momentum build over the next few months, driving prices up, like the 15% increase in Toronto detached homes from January to May 2024, before settling about 5% higher than January 2024 levels for the rest of the year.
TRREB forecasts a 2.6% price increase in 2025 and a 12.4% rise in sales, as lower borrowing costs bring more buyers back into the market.
Investor interest in starter multiplexes remains strong, and well-priced properties are moving quickly. However, in the broader market, there’s still more supply than demand, which is keeping price growth in check—for now.
The market currently favours buyers, but if buyer interest picks up faster in the coming months, or if pent-up supply gets absorbed more quickly, we could see the market balance out in the spring. Time will tell.
How We Can Help
2025 has the potential to be a promising year for real estate, but jumping in without a plan isn’t the way to go. The market still has its uncertainties, so it’s crucial to stay informed and keep a sharp eye on the numbers.
No matter if you’re looking to buy, sell, or invest, a well-thought-out strategy is essential for navigating the year ahead successfully.
Ready to plan your 2025 Toronto real estate moves? Reach out and let’s chat! Click below to schedule a call with us.
