Toronto’s housing market continues to shift, with prices down 3% year-over-year but up 1% compared to last month. The big story right now? Both listings and sales are moving in opposite directions—listings surged 32% compared to March 2024, while sales dropped 24% from the same time last year.
Buyers Are Waiting, But Prices Aren’t Moving Much
Even with more homes hitting the market, prices are holding relatively steady. Many buyers are sitting on the sidelines, waiting for clarity on key issues like tariffs, economic uncertainty, and the upcoming federal election. This “wait-and-see” approach is slowing down sales, even though more inventory is available.
Condos Struggling to Keep Up
Toronto detached and semi-detached home prices are still above the 2024 average, showing more resilience. Toronto condos, however, aren’t faring as well. Condo prices have dipped below the 2024 average, and their sales-to-new-listings ratio (SNLR) is much weaker. This suggests that condos are struggling to keep up with the rest of the market.
| Mar 2024 | Mar 2025 | Change | SNLR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 416 Detached | $1,708,437 | $1,723,489 | +1% | 34% |
| 416 Semi | $1,300,403 | $1,337,498 | +3% | 45% |
| 416 Condo | $729,392 | $716,460 | -2% | 26% |
416 vs. 905: A Tale of Two Freehold Markets
A noteworthy trend emerging is the difference between the 416 and 905 freehold markets. Detached and semi-detached homes in the 416 are holding steady, with prices staying above the 2024 average.
The SNLR indicates healthy demand. However, the 905 market tells a different story. Detached home prices in the 905 have dropped by 4% year-over-year, with the SNLR being just as weak as the condo market. This suggests that the 905 market is struggling more than the 416 market.
| Mar 2024 | Mar 2025 | Change | SNLR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 416 Detached | $1,708,437 | $1,723,489 | +1% | 34% |
| 905 Detached | $1,396,674 | $1,336,568 | -4% | 27% |
- Seller’s Market (SNLR above dotted line): Demand exceeds supply, leading to competition among buyers and price increases.
- Buyer’s Market (SNLR below dotted line): Oversupply gives buyers negotiating power and may result in lower prices.
- Balanced Market (SNLR at dotted line): Supply and demand are in equilibrium, leading to stable prices at around 60% in the Toronto real estate market.
What’s Next? Key Factors to Watch
- Trade & policy decisions: If trade issues get resolved or government policies help offset the impact of tariffs, buyer confidence could return, boosting home sales.
- Job security matters: Buyers need to feel secure in their jobs before locking in long-term mortgage payments.
- Federal election & housing policy: Housing remains a top concern for Canadians, and all major parties have included it in their election platforms. The ability to build more housing will be a key factor in driving economic growth.
How We Can Help
The market is in a holding pattern, but it won’t stay that way forever. Buyers who move strategically in this climate—especially in freeholds—could find solid opportunities.
If you’re looking to navigate this buyer’s market and find the right investment opportunities, don’t hesitate to reach out.
We can help you identify properties with strong cash flow, value-add potential, and long-term growth. It’s not about speculating on short-term price movements — it’s about making smart, well-informed decisions that will pay off in the future.
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