If you’ve been watching the Toronto real estate market, October gave us some interesting changes. Here’s a simple breakdown of what’s happening and what it could mean for buyers and sellers.
Home sales in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) jumped 43% year-over-year in October, following a smaller increase of 8% in September.
Toronto Houses: More Buyers Are Showing Interest
We saw more buyers entering the market for Toronto detached and semi-detached homes.
When buyer demand and the number of homes for sale start to balance out, it often signals that the market is stabilizing—and this could mean home prices are on the rise again.
Looking at the bigger picture, there are signs that detached homes might be starting to recover. As more buyers enter the market, prices could begin to rise again, especially since there are fewer homes available now compared to how many are being sold.
The market is still not back to what we’d call a “normal” state, but it’s moving in the right direction.
According to TRREB, as we get closer to spring 2025, home prices could start rising more quickly. This is because demand is still strong, and there aren’t enough new homes being built to keep up.
Toronto Condos: Still Struggling
In October 2024, the condo market continued to struggle. Although condo sales saw an increase, it was much more modest compared to detached homes.
The sales-to-new-listings ratio remains weak and well below average, meaning demand for condos is still quite low. As a result, prices aren’t likely to recover anytime soon.
Understanding Toronto Real Estate Market Dynamics Through the SNLR
| Property Type | Oct 2023 | Sep 2024 | Oct 2024 | YoY | MoM | SNLR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 416 Detached | $1,718,440 | $1,685,755 | $1,778,855 | +4% | +6% | 49% |
| 416 Semi | $1,278,347 | $1,299,324 | $1,315,547 | +3% | +1% | 56% |
| 416 Condo | $729,160 | $707,917 | $721,366 | -1% | +2% | 37% |
| 905 Detached | $1,350,022 | $1,333,394 | $1,347,747 | -0% | +1% | 45% |
The sales-to-new-listings ratio (SNLR) helps gauge market balance.
With more Toronto homes being listed than sold, the balance between supply and demand in the Toronto housing market stays steady, shown by the SNLR.
- Seller’s Market (SNLR above dotted line): Demand exceeds supply, leading to competition among buyers and price increases.
- Buyer’s Market (SNLR below dotted line): Oversupply gives buyers negotiating power and may result in lower prices.
- Balanced Market (SNLR at dotted line): Supply and demand are in equilibrium, leading to stable prices at around 60% in the Toronto real estate market.
Is This the Start of a Turnaround?
Looking at the bigger picture, there are signs that Toronto freeholds might be starting to recover. As more buyers enter the market, prices could begin to rise again, especially since the level of new inventory coming onto the market is started to slow down.
Lower interest rates, along with policy changes designed to help first-time buyers, are giving the market a much-needed boost. Here’s how:
- Lower Interest Rates: The Bank of Canada has reduced its overnight rate by 125 basis points so far, with more room for further drops. This is making homeownership more affordable for many buyers.
- Eased Mortgage Rules: The government has raised the insured mortgage cap from $1M to $1.5M, extended amortization periods, and is helping finance the construction of additional units in homes. These changes make it easier for buyers to afford larger homes or build out existing properties.
- Better Renewal Options: If you’re renewing your mortgage soon, you now have more flexibility. You can switch lenders without having to go through another stress test, which could help secure a better rate and save on monthly payments.
How We Can Help
While it’s too early to say the market is fully recovered, the October numbers show things are improving, especially in the detached home market.
If you’re thinking about investing or buying a home, this could be the right time to make a move. You might also want to explore turning condos into freehold properties, which offer better long-term growth potential.
If you’re thinking about investing in a multiplex in Toronto, we can help! Whether you’re looking for a ready-to-go property or want to convert a single-family home, we’ll guide you through every step.
Ready to start investing in Toronto real estate? Click on the link below to book a chat with us!
